Every market at 50/50.

Markets

Crypto

• Bitcoin BTC-15s · BTC-1m · BTC-5mWhere will Bitcoin be? Each contract runs 15 seconds, 1 minute or 5 minutes from its own fill.
• predict.fun FDV PREDICT-FDVWhat will predict.fun’s token be worth a day after launch? Every contract settles on the result, or is refunded if it never comes.

Commodities

• Gold GOLD-15s · GOLD-1m · GOLD-5mWhere will gold be? Each contract runs 15 seconds, 1 minute or 5 minutes from its own fill.

Sports

• Bears at Lions NFL-CHI-DET-TOTAL · NFL-CHI-DET-SPREADBears at Lions on Thanksgiving: what’s the over/under and the spread? Every contract settles on the result.
• Eagles at Cowboys NFL-PHI-DAL-TOTAL · NFL-PHI-DAL-SPREADEagles at Cowboys on Thanksgiving: what’s the over/under and the spread? Every contract settles on the result.
• Chiefs at Bills NFL-KC-BUF-TOTAL · NFL-KC-BUF-SPREADChiefs at Bills on Thanksgiving: what’s the over/under and the spread? Every contract settles on the result.

Politics

• House seats: Republicans HOUSE-R-2026How many House seats will Republicans win in the 2026 midterms? Every contract settles on the result.
• Senate seats: Republicans SENATE-R-2026How many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the 2026 midterms? Every contract settles on the result.
• House popular vote: margin HOUSE-VOTE-2026By how much will Democrats win the national House vote? Every contract settles on the result.
• US–Iran ceasefire IRAN-STRIKEWhen will the US next strike Iran? The number is a date: each strike is a day, and Higher means later.

Economy

• Fed rate, end of 2027 FED-2027Where will the Fed’s rate be at the end of 2027? Every contract settles on the result.
• 10-year yield: high by year-end UST10Y-MAX-2026How high will the 10-year Treasury yield close before 2027? Every contract settles on the result.

Tech

• Anthropic IPO: date ANTH-IPO-DATEWhen will Anthropic’s shares start trading? The number is a date: each strike is a day, and Higher means later.
• Anthropic IPO: market cap ANTH-IPO-CAPWhat will Anthropic be worth at the close of its first trading day? Every contract settles on the result, or is refunded if it never comes.
• Next Fable model FABLE-NEXTWhen will Anthropic release the next Fable model? The number is a date: each strike is a day, and Higher means later.

Culture

• Elon’s posts, 2026 ELON-1d · ELON-7dHow many times will Elon Musk have posted on X this year? Each contract runs 1 day or 7 days from its own fill.

Uptime

• claude.ai uptime CLAUDE-UP-1d · CLAUDE-UP-7d · CLAUDE-UP-30dHow much of the coming days will claude.ai be up? Each contract runs to the first UTC midnight at least 1 day, 7 days or 30 days after its own fill, so it settles on whole days.
• Polymarket uptime POLY-UP-1d · POLY-UP-7d · POLY-UP-30dHow much of the coming days will Polymarket’s trading API be up? Each contract runs to the first UTC midnight at least 1 day, 7 days or 30 days after its own fill, so it settles on whole days.

How a horizon contract works

1. One book per market. Each market is one book of strikes on its number. Higher wins if the number finishes above your strike, Lower if it finishes below, and the book’s midpoint is the market’s forecast.
2. Always 50/50. The book moves the strike, not the price, so every contract pays 2× your size if it finishes on your side and nothing if it doesn’t: you risk your size to win your size. A number exactly on the strike refunds both sides.
3. Rolling or fixed. On rolling markets each contract expires a fixed time after its own fill (15 s, 1 m or 5 m on Bitcoin; 15 s, 1 m or 5 m on Gold; 1 d, 7 d or 30 d on claude.ai uptime; 1 d, 7 d or 30 d on Polymarket uptime; 1 d or 7 d on Elon’s posts, 2026), an uptime’s at the first UTC midnight that far on, so nobody arrives late. Fixed markets settle on a date or a result everyone shares; on date markets the number is the day something happens.

Learn

• What is a horizon contract? Definition, payout and examples A binary on a number that always pays 2×. The order book moves the strike, not the price, so every contract trades at 50/50. How it works, with examples.
• Free trading simulators with no sign-up: what each one actually gives you Free simulators you can use with no account, compared by what matters for learning: where the prices come from and whether anyone trades against you.
• Is day trading a good side hustle? What the research says For most people, no. In the best-known study 97% of persistent day traders lost money. The numbers, what they mean per hour, and a free way to test yourself.
• What does over/under mean? How the line works, and what it looks like with no vig An over/under is a position on a game's total points against a line. How it works, what -110 really costs, and the same trade on an order book with no vig.
• Make me a market: a free market-making game, with no sign-up Quote a bid and an ask, trade with informed traders and flow, and see your PnL. The market-making interview game, free to play with no sign-up.
• Bitcoin Up or Down fair price: what a 5-minute window is worth right now The fair price of Polymarket's Bitcoin Up or Down markets, live, by how far the average is from the price to beat and how long is left. With the formula.
• Polymarket vs Kalshi: who can use each, what it costs, and how each settles Polymarket vs Kalshi compared: access, regulation, taker fees at each price, what trades most, how markets settle, and how close their midterm prices were.
• Elon's posts this week, Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026 418 posts, quotes and reposts from Elon Musk over Oct 26 – Nov 1 (59.7 a day), as XTracker counts them. When he posted, and when he went quiet.