RizonWhere will gold be?
The market's forecast: $4,019.10.
Gold trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
GOLD-15s | 15s | $4,019 | $4,019.20 | $4,019.10 |
GOLD-1m | 1m | $4,019 | $4,019.20 | $4,019.10 |
GOLD-5m | 5m | $4,019 | $4,019.30 | $4,019.15 |
How it settles
- The number is the gold price in US dollars per troy ounce as Paxos Gold (PAXG: one token is one fine troy ounce, and it tracks spot gold within about 0.2%): the median of the Coinbase PAXG-USD and Kraken PAXG/USD midpoints (best bid plus best ask, halved), to the cent, leaving out a venue that hasn’t updated for 10 seconds. It is recomputed four times a second.
- Higher wins if the price at expiry is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Strikes are multiples of $0.10; a price exactly on the strike is a push: both sides get their size back.
- Each contract expires a fixed time after its own fill (15 seconds, 1 minute or 5 minutes), rounded up to the next whole second.
- It settles on the last price at or before expiry. With no price in the 5 seconds before expiry, it is a push.
- PAXG trades around the clock, so Gold trades on weekends too. With no price for 5 seconds (there is none while neither venue has updated for 10 seconds), the market takes no new orders.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: Coinbase PAXG-USD and Kraken PAXG/USD midpoints.