RizonWhat will Anthropic be worth at the close of its first trading day?
The market's forecast: $1.78T.
Anthropic IPO: market cap trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
ANTH-IPO-CAP | IPO day close | $1.74T | $1.82T | $1.78T |
How it settles
- The number is Anthropic’s market capitalisation at the close of its first trading day, in billions of US dollars: the total shares outstanding (all classes, after the offering) stated in its final prospectus times the official closing price on its primary exchange. $1,930B is $1.93 trillion.
- Higher wins if it is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Strikes are multiples of $10B; exactly on the strike is a push: both sides get their size back.
- Trading closes when the first session closes (Rizon halts it). Rizon resolves it from the official close and the final prospectus, usually the next day; a halted or shortened first session uses its official close.
- If Anthropic hasn’t listed by Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, the market is void: every contract is refunded.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: The primary exchange’s official close and the final prospectus, resolved by Rizon.