When will Anthropic release the next Fable model?

Next Fable model trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.

How it settles

• The number is the day (US Eastern date) a Claude model named Fable with version 5.2 or higher (5.2, 6, …) becomes publicly available, per Anthropic’s announcements. An open beta or an open waitlist counts; a closed beta or private access doesn’t. (Fable 5 shipped Jun 9, 2026; Fable 5.1, Sep 1.)
• Strikes sit on the midnights (UTC) between days, so it never pushes. At a strike of Nov 10, Higher wins if it ships on Nov 10 or later (or not by the deadline), and Lower wins if it ships by Nov 9.
• Each contract expires 2 days after its strike’s midnight. If Rizon has resolved the market by then (from Anthropic’s announcements), it settles on the reported day; if not, Higher wins.
• Rizon resolves it by hand. Until it does, the book keeps trading, including strikes the event has already decided, so a resting order can fill after the news.
• If it hasn’t happened by Dec 31, 2026, the number is Dec 31, 2026 and Higher wins at every strike. Strikes run from tomorrow to Dec 31, 2026, and each one trades until its midnight passes (resting orders at it are then canceled and refunded); trading closes at 00:00 UTC on Dec 31, 2026.
• In the API the number and the strikes are Julian Day Numbers: 2,461,360 is Nov 15, 2026, and the strike 2,461,359.5 is the midnight that starts it.
• A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.

Source: Anthropic’s announcements, resolved by Rizon.

Guides

• What is a horizon contract? Definition, payout and examples
• Fixed vs rolling horizons: when your clock starts at your trade, and when it doesn't