How many times will Elon Musk have posted on X this year?

Elon’s posts, 2026 trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.

How it settles

• The number is how many times Elon Musk has posted on X since 2026-01-01 00:00 UTC, as Polymarket’s XTracker counts it: main-feed posts, quotes and reposts, not replies. It is XTracker’s running total less 2,618, its total at the start of the year.
• Higher wins if the count at expiry is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below.
• Each contract expires a fixed time after its own fill (1 day or 7 days), rounded up to the next whole second.
• Strikes sit on half-posts (11,520.5: Higher needs 11,521 or more), so a contract never pushes on the count.
• It settles on the count at expiry, the posts XTracker had recorded by then, once Rizon has read the counter at or after it. With no read for 10 minutes after expiry, it is a push. While Rizon hasn’t read the counter for 2 minutes, the market takes no new orders.
• A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.

Source: Polymarket’s XTracker.

Guides

• What is a horizon contract? Definition, payout and examples
• Elon Musk's tweet count this week, as one number
• Fixed vs rolling horizons: when your clock starts at your trade, and when it doesn't