RizonElon Musk's tweet count this week, as one number
Polymarket splits Elon Musk's weekly post count into about 30 ranges of 20. On Oct 29, 2026 they implied 338 posts for Oct 23–30. One book does it directly.
Short answer: On Oct 29, 2026, Polymarket's market on Elon Musk's posts for Oct 23–30 implied a median of 338 posts, spread across about 30 ranges of 20 that are each a market of their own; Polymarket's XTracker had counted 282 by 08:20 UTC. Rizon's weekly market (ELON-W-2026-10-30) is one book of strikes on the count itself, on half-posts like 338.5, Higher or Lower at 2×, settled on XTracker's total for the same Friday-noon-to-Friday-noon window.
Polymarket runs Elon Musk's post count as a weekly market, and the Oct 23–30 event alone had traded $1.42M by Oct 29. It's also a clear example of a bucket market turning one number into about 30 separate markets. This post covers the rules, the prices on Oct 29, and the same number as one book.
What counts
Polymarket's Elon markets resolve on the Post Counter at xtracker.polymarket.com, with X itself as the secondary source:
- Main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts count.
- Replies don't, except main-feed replies the tracker picks up.
- Deleted posts count if the tracker captured them first (it takes about 5 minutes).
- Community reposts the tracker misses don't count.
The window runs from 12:00 PM ET on its start date to 12:00 PM ET on its end date.
The windows on Oct 29, 2026
Polymarket opens a new 7-day window every Tuesday and Friday at noon ET, so two weekly windows overlap at any time; it also lists 2-day and monthly windows. Rizon lists one at a time: Friday noon to Friday noon ET, the window containing now, the next opening as the last one closes. Its id carries the window's end date, so it rolls weekly: ELON-W-2026-10-30 is the Oct 23–30 window, and the next is ELON-W-2026-11-06.
| Window | Counted at 08:20 UTC (posts) | XTracker pace (posts) | Implied median (posts) | Polymarket volume ($M) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Oct 23–30 | 282 | 329 | 338 | 1.42 |
| Oct 27–Nov 3 | 89 | 356 | 324 | 0.47 |
| Oct 30–Nov 6 | 312 | 0.07 |
The pace is XTracker's projection for the full window. In the Oct 23–30 window the market was about 9 posts above it.
The buckets
Each window is about 30 ranges, 20 posts wide, with open tails below 20 and at 580 or more. Each range is its own market with its own book. The middle of both live weekly windows on Oct 29:
| Range (posts) | Oct 23–30 bid (¢) | Oct 23–30 ask (¢) | Oct 27–Nov 3 bid (¢) | Oct 27–Nov 3 ask (¢) |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 240–259 | 2.7 | 3.1 | ||
| 260–279 | 0.1 | 6 | 7 | |
| 280–299 | 1 | 1.5 | 14 | 15 |
| 300–319 | 11 | 12 | 19 | 20 |
| 320–339 | 39 | 40 | 20.1 | 20.5 |
| 340–359 | 30.5 | 31.3 | 14.9 | 15.5 |
| 360–379 | 9 | 9.8 | 7.2 | 7.9 |
| 380–399 | 4 | 4.2 | 3.9 | 4.3 |
| 400–419 | 0.6 | 0.7 | 2.0 | 2.1 |
| 420–439 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 1.0 | 1.4 |
In the Oct 23–30 window the ranges below 260 had already resolved No: the count had passed them.
To read the forecast off the buckets you add them up: normalise the mid prices so they sum to 1, find where the running total crosses one half, and interpolate inside that range. For Oct 23–30 the total reaches 13.1% at 320 and 53.6% at 340, which puts the median at 338. The venue doesn't quote that number; you compute it. And a view like "340 posts or more" isn't one market but every range from 340–359 up, about a dozen of them, each with its own spread.
The same number as one book
Rizon's weekly market is one book of strikes on the count itself. A count is a whole number, so strikes sit on half-posts: Higher than 338.5 wins at 339 posts or more, Lower at 338 or fewer, and a contract never pushes. Every contract pays 2×, and the book's midpoint is the forecast, in posts, quoted live rather than worked out from 30 prices.
| Polymarket (Oct 23–30) | Rizon (ELON-W-2026-10-30) | |
|---|---|---|
| Markets on the count | About 30 ranges of 20 | One book |
| A view on "340 or more" | Every range from 340–359 up | Higher than 339.5 |
| The forecast | Computed from the buckets: 338 | The book's midpoint |
| What a win pays | $1 a share | 2× your size |
| Settles on | XTracker's count for the window | XTracker's total for the same window |
Rizon resolves the market automatically from XTracker's tracking for that window, 15 minutes after the window ends (to let late deletions and imports land). If XTracker hasn't caught up by then, Rizon waits for it.
What to watch
- His rhythm. Over the past year he averaged 38.7 posts a day (median day 33), busiest from midnight to 3 a.m. New York time: the hour-by-hour data is in Elon Musk's posting habits.
- XTracker's lag. Since December 2025 it has recorded a post a median 2.5 minutes after it was made (4.6 minutes at the 90th percentile), and much longer when its sync stalls, so someone watching X sees some posts first (the measurements).
- XTracker's stalls. On Oct 28 its count sat still from 18:31 UTC for hours, with sync errors, then caught up in a batch. On Oct 29 its user record still showed a last sync on Oct 26 and a sync error at 08:06 UTC, while new posts kept importing.
- The clock change. US daylight time ends on Nov 1, so the window's end moves from 16:00 UTC (Oct 30) to 17:00 UTC (Nov 6).
FAQ
How many times does Elon Musk post a week?
On Oct 29, 2026, Polymarket's prices implied a median of 338 posts for Oct 23–30 and 324 for Oct 27–Nov 3, counting main-feed posts, quotes and reposts but not replies. Over the past year he averaged 38.7 posts a day.
What counts as a tweet in these markets?
Whatever Polymarket's XTracker counts: main-feed posts, quote posts and reposts. Replies don't count unless they appear in the main feed and the tracker picks them up, and deleted posts count only if the tracker captured them.
When does the weekly window start and end?
At 12:00 PM ET. Polymarket opens 7-day windows every Tuesday and Friday; Rizon lists the Friday-to-Friday window, one at a time, with a new market id each week.
How does Rizon settle its weekly Elon market?
From XTracker's total for the window, 15 minutes after the window ends, or later if XTracker hasn't caught up.
Why are the strikes on half-posts?
Because a count is a whole number: a strike of 338.5 can't be hit exactly, so every contract is either Higher (339 or more) or Lower (338 or fewer), and none pushes.