RizonWhen will the US next strike Iran?
No two-sided book right now, so no forecast.
US–Iran ceasefire trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
IRAN-STRIKE | By Dec 31 | – | – | – |
How it settles
- The number is the day (UTC) of the first qualifying US military strike on Iran from Oct 30, 2026 on. Higher means the ceasefire holds longer.
- A qualifying strike, as Polymarket defines it: a US-initiated air strike (bombs, air-to-surface missiles, air-launched drones) or surface-to-surface missile or drone strike that hits Iran’s territory or internal waters. Intercepted munitions and their debris, surface-to-air fire, small arms, cyber operations, naval gunfire, artillery, minor short-range munitions, ground incursions and threats don’t count.
- Strikes sit on the midnights (UTC) between days, so it never pushes. At a strike of Nov 15, Higher wins if the US strikes on Nov 15 or later (or not by the deadline), and Lower wins if the US strikes by Nov 14.
- Each contract expires 2 days after its strike’s midnight. If Rizon has resolved the market by then (from a consensus of credible reporting), it settles on the reported day; if not, Higher wins.
- Rizon resolves it by hand. Until it does, the book keeps trading, including strikes the event has already decided, so a resting order can fill after the news.
- If it hasn’t happened by Dec 31, 2026, the number is Dec 31, 2026 and Higher wins at every strike. Strikes run from tomorrow to Dec 31, 2026, and each one trades until its midnight passes (resting orders at it are then canceled and refunded); trading closes at 00:00 UTC on Dec 31, 2026.
- In the API the number and the strikes are Julian Day Numbers: 2,461,360 is Nov 15, 2026, and the strike 2,461,359.5 is the midnight that starts it.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: A consensus of credible reporting, resolved by Rizon.