RizonHorizon contract examples: five worked trades, from Bitcoin to the midterms
Five horizon contracts worked through with real strikes and PnL, on Bitcoin, House seats, the Fed's rate, a date market and uptime. What each pays, and when.
Short answer: Buy $100 of Higher at 194.5 on Republican House seats and you get $200 back if they win 195 or more, and nothing if they win 194 or fewer. Every horizon contract works that way: pay your size, pick a side of a strike, get 2× back if the number finishes on your side. These five trades use Rizon's real books on Nov 2, 2026, one for each kind of number: a live price, a count, a rate, a date and an uptime. Everything is paper money.
A horizon contract has one rule for what you get paid and one for when. Here's how the same rule reads on five very different numbers. In each, buying takes the book's best ask and holds Higher at that strike, and selling takes the best bid and holds Lower at it.
| Example | Market | Kind | Best bid | Best ask | Unit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | BTC-1m | Rolling, 1 minute | 78,328 | 78,336 | Dollars |
| 2 | HOUSE-R-2026 | Fixed, the result | 191.5 | 194.5 | Seats |
| 3 | FED-2027 | Fixed, Dec 31, 2027 | 4.125 | 4.625 | Percent |
| 4 | IRAN-STRIKE | Date | Nov 15 | Nov 20 | Days |
| 5 | CLAUDE-UP-7d | Rolling, 7 days | 99.765 | 99.835 | Percent |
1. A live price: Bitcoin over one minute
You buy $100 on BTC-1m and you hold Higher at $78,336. Your fill sets your own clock: a fill at 03:00:41.3 UTC expires at 03:01:42, the first whole second at least a minute later.
| Bitcoin at expiry ($) | You receive ($) | PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 78,400 | 200 | +100 |
| 78,337 | 200 | +100 |
| 78,336 | 100 | 0 |
| 78,335 | 0 | −100 |
| 78,200 | 0 | −100 |
Exactly $78,336 is a push, and so is expiry with no live price in the 5 seconds before. The contract settles on Coinbase's BTC-USD price, with Kraken as backup.
2. A count: House seats after the midterms
You sell $100 on HOUSE-R-2026 and you hold Lower at 191.5. You're saying Republicans finish with fewer seats than the market's whole bid.
| Republican seats | You receive ($) | PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 188 | 200 | +100 |
| 191 | 200 | +100 |
| 192 | 0 | −100 |
| 215 | 0 | −100 |
Strikes sit on half-seats, so a count can't land on one and this contract can't push. Every contract in this market expires together, and Rizon resolves it from official state results and AP race calls once every seat is decided. The book's midpoint, 193 seats, is the market's forecast.
3. A rate: the Fed at the end of 2027
You buy $50 on FED-2027 and you hold Higher at 4.625%. The number is the upper bound of the federal funds target range on Dec 31, 2027, which stood at 4.00% when this market was listed.
| Upper bound on Dec 31, 2027 (%) | You receive ($) | PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 5.00 | 100 | +50 |
| 4.75 | 100 | +50 |
| 4.50 | 0 | −50 |
| 4.00 | 0 | −50 |
Strikes sit between the Fed's quarter-point steps, so this can't push either. It settles automatically on FRED's DFEDTARU series, usually the next business day. Your $50 stays out of your balance for over a year, which is a real cost that a price-only comparison misses.
4. A date: the next US strike on Iran
In a date market, the number is itself a day. Strikes are the midnights between days, written in the API as Julian Day Numbers (2,461,359.5 is the midnight that starts Nov 15, 2026). On IRAN-STRIKE, buying $100 takes the ask and holds Higher than Nov 20, and selling takes the bid and holds Lower than Nov 15:
| First qualifying US strike | Higher than Nov 20: PnL ($) | Lower than Nov 15: PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| Nov 12 | −100 | +100 |
| Nov 14 | −100 | +100 |
| Nov 15 | −100 | −100 |
| Nov 19 | −100 | −100 |
| Nov 20 | +100 | −100 |
| Not by the deadline | +100 | −100 |
Higher means later, or never: if the event hasn't happened by the deadline, Higher wins. A contract expires 2 days after its strike's midnight, to give the source time to report. So this market always tells you "when", and a date market can't push.
The table also shows what a spread is. Someone holding both of those positions loses on both if the US strikes between Nov 15 and Nov 19. That's the cost of crossing both sides of the book, and the makers on the other side earn it.
5. An uptime: claude.ai over the next 7 days
You buy $20 on CLAUDE-UP-7d and you hold Higher at 99.835%. Your contract expires at the first UTC midnight at least 7 days after your fill, and settles on the status page's outage figures for those 7 whole days.
| Uptime over the 7 days (%) | You receive ($) | PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 100.00 | 40 | +20 |
| 99.84 | 40 | +20 |
| 99.83 | 0 | −20 |
| 99.20 | 0 | −20 |
Uptime is reported to two decimals and strikes sit on the half-hundredths, so it can't push. Uptime is a rolling market on a number no one can trade directly, which is the point: anything with a value at a known time can have a horizon contract.
Hedging: taking the other side
You can't sell a horizon contract back, but you can take the other side. Say you hold Higher at 194.5 on House seats, and the news moves the market to 200. Selling now takes a bid near 198.5, so you also hold Lower at 198.5:
| Republican seats | Higher at 194.5: PnL per $100 ($) | Lower at 198.5: PnL per $100 ($) | Total ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 190 | −100 | +100 | 0 |
| 196 | +100 | +100 | +200 |
| 205 | +100 | −100 | 0 |
You're now flat outside those strikes, and you collect both sides if the count finishes in between. So hedging at a better strike locks in a free chance of a win, in place of cash today.
FAQ
What is an example of a horizon contract?
$100 of Higher at 194.5 on Republican House seats: it pays $200 if they win 195 or more, and nothing if they win 194 or fewer.
What's the most I can make on a horizon contract?
Your size, every time. A win pays back 2× your size, which is your size in profit, however far the number finishes past the strike.
What's an example of a horizon contract that pushes?
A Bitcoin contract with a strike of $78,336, if Bitcoin finishes at exactly $78,336.00. Both sides get their size back. It can happen on a number that can equal a strike; a seat count can't equal 194.5.
Why does the date market use Julian Day Numbers?
So that a date is a number like any other, and the same book, chart and API work on it. The app shows ordinary dates and converts them for you.
Can I try these trades?
Yes, on Rizon, with paper money and no signup. The books above will have moved, and that's the point: read the book's midpoint for the market's latest forecast.