RizonHorizon contract vs perpetual futures: same book, different payoff
Both trade on a book whose price is a level of the underlying. A perp's PnL grows with the price and needs margin. A horizon contract's is fixed at your size.
Short answer: Both trade on an order book whose price is a level of the underlying, and buying and selling work the same way. A perpetual future's PnL grows with every dollar the price moves, it never expires, and it runs on margin, funding and liquidation. A horizon contract's PnL is fixed at plus or minus your size, it expires, and the most you can lose is what you paid. A perp is for holding a position in an asset. A horizon contract is for a view on where a number will be at a set time, and it works on numbers no perp can list.
A horizon contract borrows its book from futures. The difference is what happens to your position once you have one.
The same book
On Nov 2, 2026, Rizon's BTC-1m book quoted 78,328 bid and 78,336 ask. It reads like a futures book:
| Perpetual future | Horizon contract | |
|---|---|---|
| The book's price | Bitcoin's price, per BTC | The strike, in dollars |
| Buying takes the ask | Long from the ask | Higher at the ask |
| Selling takes the bid | Short from the bid | Lower at the bid |
| The spread | Dollars of price | Dollars of strike |
| Your entry | Your fill price | Your strike |
| PnL | (exit − entry) × quantity | Plus or minus your size |
| Expiry | None | A fixed time after your fill, or one date |
| Margin | Yes, and leverage to match | No: your size is paid in full |
| Funding | Paid or received every few hours | None |
| Liquidation | Yes | No |
| Exit | Any time | At expiry; hedge with the other side before that |
| Underlying | A price with an index | Any number with a named source |
The payoff
Take a long from 78,336 and a Higher at the same level. The perp holds $100 of Bitcoin at 1× and the horizon contract has a size of $100:
| Bitcoin at the end ($) | Perp PnL at 1× ($) | Horizon contract PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 78,136 | −0.26 | −100 |
| 78,286 | −0.06 | −100 |
| 78,335 | −0.00 | −100 |
| 78,336 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 78,337 | 0.00 | +100 |
| 78,386 | +0.06 | +100 |
| 78,536 | +0.26 | +100 |
A $1 move decides the whole contract, and a $200 move pays no more than a $1 one. This is the trade-off in one table. A perp pays you for how far the price goes. A horizon contract pays you for which side it finishes on.
How much exposure is that, really?
Near the strike, a short-dated horizon contract moves like a large futures position. If the number finishes in a normal distribution around the strike with standard deviation σ, the value of a Higher contract of size s changes by 2s × 0.399 ÷ σ for each $1 the number moves. Bitcoin's one-sigma move over a minute was about $21 in Sep–Oct 2026, so at the moment you trade:
| Size ($) | Sensitivity ($ per $1 of Bitcoin) | Equivalent futures position (BTC) | Equivalent notional at $78,336 ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 29,800 |
| 100 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 297,700 |
That's why a 1-minute contract can feel like thousands of times leverage: for a moment, it behaves like it. The difference is at the edges. A real 3.8 BTC position keeps losing as the price falls and can be liquidated. The horizon contract's loss stops at $100, and its sensitivity drops away as the price moves from the strike. On a longer horizon, σ is larger and the same size carries less exposure.
Many strikes make a straight line
Horizon contracts on a ladder of strikes add up to something close to a futures position, over a range. Hold Higher for $1 at each of 100 strikes, a dollar apart: each one pays +$1 above its strike and −$1 below.
| Bitcoin relative to the ladder | Contracts in profit | PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| Below every strike | 0 | −100 |
| A quarter of the way up | 25 | −50 |
| In the middle | 50 | 0 |
| Three quarters of the way up | 75 | +50 |
| Above every strike | 100 | +100 |
Inside the range, the PnL rises $2 for each $1 of Bitcoin, which is a 2 BTC futures position; outside it, the PnL is flat. So the digital payoff is the building block and the linear payoff is what you get by stacking it. In a real book, you'd cross a spread on each one, so this isn't a cheap way to get futures exposure. It shows how the two contracts relate.
Which one fits
| Your view | Fits |
|---|---|
| "Bitcoin keeps going up this year" | A perp: you want PnL to grow with the move, and to hold it |
| "It finishes above this level in a minute" | A horizon contract: a defined risk on a defined time |
| "Republicans win more than 193.5 seats" | A horizon contract: there's no index to build a perp on, and a fixed result to settle on |
| "A hedge for a spot position over months" | A perp or a dated future: size is linear, and you can exit any time |
| "I never want a liquidation" | A horizon contract, or an unlevered position |
FAQ
Is a horizon contract a futures contract?
No. It trades on a book like a futures book, but its payoff is binary and it's fully paid when you trade. A futures contract has a linear payoff and needs margin.
Does a horizon contract have funding?
No. A perp pays funding because it has no expiry and needs a way to stay near the index. A horizon contract expires and settles on the number, so there's nothing to keep it anchored to.
Can a horizon contract be liquidated?
No. Your size is paid in full up front, so there's no margin to run out of. The worst case is losing your size at expiry.
Can you hedge a perp with a horizon contract?
Partly. A Lower contract pays a fixed amount if the price finishes under the strike, so it offsets a long perp's loss at one point, not across every level. A ladder of strikes covers a range, as above, at the cost of a spread on each.
Are there perpetual prediction markets?
Yes, as a separate product. Kalshi's glossary lists perpetuals as leveraged derivatives contracts with no fixed expiration, apart from its prediction-market contracts. A horizon contract keeps the prediction market's expiry and defined risk, and takes only the futures-style book.