RizonHow many Senate seats will Republicans hold after the 2026 midterms?
The market's forecast: 44 seats.
Senate seats: Republicans trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
SENATE-R-2026 | Election Nov 3 | 43.5 | 44.5 | 44 seats |
How it settles
- The number is how many seats Republicans hold in the Senate of the 120th Congress after the Nov 3, 2026 elections: the seats not up for election, plus the 2026 races (runoffs included), by Polymarket’s counting rules. Independents who caucus with Republicans, or say they will, count.
- Higher wins if the count is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Strikes sit on half-seats (48.5: Higher needs 49 or more), so it never pushes.
- Trading stays open through election night until Rizon halts it once every race is called.
- Every contract expires at once: Rizon resolves the market from official state results and AP race calls when every seat is decided. If a seat or a caucus is still open, it waits; the latest it uses is the seats held on Jan 4, 2027, 11:59 PM ET.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: Official state results and AP race calls, resolved by Rizon.