How high will the 10-year Treasury yield close before 2027?

10-year yield: high by year-end trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.

How it settles

• The number is the highest daily 10-year Treasury par yield (the US Treasury’s Daily Par Yield Curve Rates, the “10 Yr” column; moves during the day don’t count) on business days from Oct 29, 2026 through Dec 31, 2026, in percent.
• Higher wins if it is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Yields have two decimals and strikes sit halfway between (5.195%), so it never pushes. The highest close only rises: a strike below the highest close so far is already decided.
• Trading closes Dec 31, 2026 at 3:00 PM ET and every contract expires at 4:00 PM ET. It settles automatically once the Treasury publishes Dec 31’s rates (FRED’s DGS10 as a backup); until then it waits.
• A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.

Source: US Treasury Daily Par Yield Curve Rates (FRED DGS10 as backup).

Guides

• What is a horizon contract? Definition, payout and examples
• Fixed vs rolling horizons: when your clock starts at your trade, and when it doesn't