Rizon

Markets

Where will the Fed’s rate be at the end of 2027?

The market's forecast: 4.375%.

As of 4 November 2026, 08:07 UTCPaper money

Fed rate, end of 2027 trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.

MarketHorizonBest bidBest askMidpoint
FED-2027End of 20274.125%4.625%4.375%

How it settles

  • The number is the upper bound of the federal funds target range in effect on Dec 31, 2027, in percent (4.00% now, held on Oct 28, 2026).
  • Higher wins if it is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Strikes sit between the Fed’s quarter-point steps (4.125%, 4.375%, …), so it never pushes.
  • Trading stays open until Dec 31, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, when every contract expires. It settles automatically on FRED’s DFEDTARU value for Dec 31, 2027 once FRED publishes it (usually the next business day); until then it waits.
  • A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.

Source: FRED DFEDTARU (the Fed’s target range, upper limit).

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