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Polymarket vs Kalshi: who can use each, what it costs, and how each settles

Polymarket vs Kalshi compared: access, regulation, taker fees at each price, what trades most, how markets settle, and how close their midterm prices were.

4 min read
  • polymarket
  • kalshi
  • prediction-markets
  • comparison
  • fees

Short answer: Kalshi is a CFTC-regulated US exchange that trades in dollars. Polymarket's global platform runs on a blockchain and isn't open to new orders from the US, the UK, Australia and many other places. Polymarket US is a separate venue. Their fee formulas have the same shape, and on the biggest questions their prices stay close: within about 1¢ on the 2026 midterms.

Side by side

KalshiPolymarket (global)Polymarket US
RegulationCFTC-registered exchangeOutside the US systemCFTC-regulated, through QCEX, bought in 2025
Trades inUS dollarspUSD, on a blockchainUS dollars
Taker fee0.07 × shares × p × (1 − p), rounded upRate of 0 to 0.07 by category, same formula0.0695, same formula
Maker feeNone by defaultNoneNone, with rebates by tier
How markets settleKalshi, from each market's named sourcesUMA's oracle; Chainlink for Up or DownUnder its own exchange's rules
Practice modeDemo with mock fundsNone we could find
APIREST and WebSocketREST, WebSocket and SDKsIts own docs

Who can use each

This changes often, so check before you sign up.

  • Polymarket (global): its geoblocking page lists the US, UK, Australia, France, Germany, Italy, Singapore, Taiwan and others as close-only, on the site and the API. Sanctioned regions such as Iran and Cuba are blocked outright.
  • Kalshi: its help center says you can trade from many countries, subject to its member agreement, which has its own restricted list. In the US, courts and states are still fighting over its sports contracts. One comparison, updated in October 2026, lists Michigan, Nevada and Washington as unavailable, and sports contracts as geofenced in Massachusetts.
  • Polymarket US: a separate venue for US residents, with its own fee schedule. The same comparison lists it in all states except Nevada, and says the rollout is still limited.

What a trade costs

Both charge takers a fee that peaks at 50¢ and shrinks toward 0¢ and $1. In dollars per 100 shares:

Venue and categoryAt 50¢ ($)At 90¢ ($)
Kalshi1.750.63
Polymarket: crypto1.750.63
Polymarket: sports, economics, culture, weather1.250.45
Polymarket: politics, finance, tech1.000.36
Polymarket: geopolitics00
Polymarket US1.740.63

The fee isn't the whole cost, because you also pay the spread, and that varies by market and by the minute. A wide book on a low fee schedule can cost more than a tight book on a high one. Compare the book in front of you, using the fee calculator for the fee part. Rates come from Polymarket's docs and Kalshi's schedule.

Both pay makers to quote, in different ways. See how market makers make money.

What trades on each

Sports dominate both now. Pew found that sports trading in June and July 2026, during the World Cup, topped $58 billion on Kalshi and neared $22 billion on Polymarket. Over the longer run since July 2024, sports were 80% of volume on Kalshi and 39% on global Polymarket, which also trades a lot of politics and crypto.

How markets settle

On Polymarket, most markets settle through UMA's optimistic oracle. Anyone can propose a result by posting a bond, typically $750. If no one disputes it within 2 hours, it stands. A disputed result can go to a vote of UMA token holders and take 4 to 6 days. Up or Down markets skip all that and settle on Chainlink's price.

On Kalshi, the exchange settles each market from the sources named in its rules, and it's cleared through its own clearinghouse.

Which is more accurate?

On the biggest questions, there's no real gap. When the first polls closed on Nov 3, 2026, Democrats to win the House cost 93.3¢ on Kalshi and 94.5¢ on Polymarket, and to win the Senate 74.5¢ and 75.5¢. Both won. We scored every race on Polymarket: favorites won 430 of 437, and Kalshi reports 479 of 487 for its own.

Which should you use?

If you wantLook at
A regulated venue in US dollars, in the USKalshi or Polymarket US
To trade from a country on neither restricted listEither, after checking its current list
A demo for your codeKalshi
Deep sports marketsBoth, and compare the books
To practice with no account or moneyRizon, a paper exchange with a different contract, or other simulators

Rizon isn't a substitute for either. It's practice money, there's nothing to withdraw, and its contract pays a fixed 2× on a book of strikes. The market on Rizon borrows their prices through bots, so it won't beat them as a forecast.

FAQ

Is Polymarket or Kalshi better?

It depends on where you live and what you trade. Where you can legally trade usually decides it, and after that it's the spread on the markets you care about.

Which has lower fees?

At the same price, Polymarket's rate is lower on most categories, and equal on crypto. But the fee is only part of the cost. The spread can outweigh it, so compare the live book.

Can I use Polymarket in the US?

The global platform lists the US as close-only. Polymarket US is the separate venue for US residents.

Is Kalshi available outside the US?

In many countries, though not all. Its help center says eligibility follows its member agreement, and you confirm your country when you sign up.

Can I try them without real money?

Kalshi has a demo with mock funds. We found no official Polymarket demo. Here's what to use instead.

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    Favorites won 430 of 437 races on Polymarket. But all 7 upsets went to Democrats, and seat markets priced Republicans about 16 House seats too high.

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