RizonBy how much will Democrats win the national House vote?
The market's forecast: D+13.15.
House popular vote: margin trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
HOUSE-VOTE-2026 | Clerk’s count, 2027 | D+12.95 | D+13.35 | D+13.15 |
How it settles
- The number is the national House popular vote margin in the Nov 3, 2026 elections: the Democratic share minus the Republican share of all valid votes for House candidates in the 50 states (delegates left out), in percentage points, rounded to one decimal (half away from zero). D+9.3 is 9.3; R+2.1 is −2.1.
- Higher wins if the margin is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Strikes sit on x.x5 (D+9.25), so a margin rounded to one decimal never lands on one.
- Rizon resolves it from the Clerk of the House’s election statistics when they are published, and halts trading before then once certified state results leave no doubt. If the Clerk hasn’t published by Jun 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, it resolves from the states’ certified results.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: Clerk of the House, election statistics, resolved by Rizon.