RizonHow much of the coming days will Polymarket’s trading API be up?
The market's forecast: 99.55%.
Polymarket uptime trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
POLY-UP-1d | 1d | 99.995% | – | – |
POLY-UP-7d | 7d | 99.535% | – | – |
POLY-UP-30d | 30d | 99.505% | 99.585% | 99.55% |
How it settles
The rules for POLY-UP-1d; the longer horizons work the same way.
- The number is Polymarket’s trading API’s uptime over the whole UTC day before a contract’s expiry, in percent to two decimals, by Atlassian Statuspage’s formula: 100 × (1 − (major-outage seconds + 0.3 × partial-outage seconds) ÷ 86,400). Degraded performance and maintenance don’t count as downtime. The outages are the Predictions Trading API (CLOB) (cljg99p53207029broc36bdpn0h) component’s on status.polymarket.com (Instatus).
- Each contract expires at the first UTC midnight at least day after its own fill, so the days it covers are whole UTC days.
- It settles from 1 hour after that midnight, on each day’s partial and major outage seconds as status.polymarket.com records them (its list of each outage, from and to), once Rizon has read them after that hour. If the page’s figures don’t come, a day it hasn’t published counts as Rizon recorded it (the page’s incident history, read after that hour, and its own reading of the component every minute), from 2 hours after the midnight; with no such record within 24 hours, the contract is a push.
- Higher wins if the uptime is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below. Uptime has two decimals and strikes sit halfway between (99.875%), so it never pushes. Most days are 100%, so the book is often one-sided: the top strike, 99.995%, asks whether the day goes without an outage.
- Between midnights the line is Rizon’s live estimate, the uptime over the day up to now, read every minute; at each midnight it takes that day’s settled value. While Rizon hasn’t read the page for 5 minutes, the market takes no new orders.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: status.polymarket.com (Instatus), its record of outages.