RizonWhere will Bitcoin be?
The market's forecast: $78,050.50.
Bitcoin trades as a horizon contract: Higher or Lower on the number, paying a fixed 2× if it finishes on your side of the strike. The order book quotes the strike, so its midpoint is the market's forecast of the number itself.
| Market | Horizon | Best bid | Best ask | Midpoint |
|---|---|---|---|---|
BTC-15s | 15s | $78,050 | $78,051 | $78,050.50 |
BTC-1m | 1m | $78,050 | $78,052 | $78,051.00 |
BTC-5m | 5m | $78,049 | $78,053 | $78,051.00 |
How it settles
- Higher wins if the BTC-USD price at expiry is above the strike; Lower wins if it is below.
- Each contract expires a fixed time after its own fill (15 seconds, 1 minute or 5 minutes), rounded up to the next whole second.
- Strikes are whole dollars. A price exactly on the strike is a push: both sides get their size back.
- It settles on the last live price at or before expiry; with no live price in the 5 seconds before expiry (or only a simulated one), it is a push. While Coinbase and Kraken are both down, the chart shows a simulated price: it never settles a contract, and the market takes no new orders until a live price is back.
- A win pays 2× your size; a loss pays nothing.
Source: Coinbase BTC-USD, with Kraken as backup.