RizonHow Rizon's forecasts moved, Oct 26 – Nov 1, 2026
How Rizon's 10 event forecasts moved over Oct 26 – Nov 1. Biggest move: 10-year yield (high by year-end), 5.255% to 5.18%.
Short answer: Over Oct 26 – Nov 1, the biggest move in Rizon's forecasts was 10-year yield (high by year-end): 5.255% to 5.18% (−0.075 pts). 1 of 10 event markets moved by more than their book's spread.
Every Monday, how Rizon's forecasts moved over the week just gone. Each is one book's midpoint: every contract pays 2×, so the middle of the book is the strike the market sees as equally likely to be beaten or not: its own estimate of the number.
Every forecast, start to end of the week
| Market | Forecast at the start | Forecast at the end | Change | Week high | Week low |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-year yield (high by year-end)* | 5.255% | 5.18% | −0.075 pts | 5.26% | 5.145% |
| Next Fable model* | Nov 10 | Nov 12 | +2 days | Nov 14 | Nov 7 |
| House seats (Republicans)* | 196 seats | 193.5 seats | −2.5 seats | 196 seats | 192.5 seats |
| US–Iran ceasefire* | Nov 21 | Nov 17 | −4 days | Nov 27 | Oct 31 |
| Anthropic IPO (market cap)* | $1.9T | $1.88T | −$20B | $1.92T | $1.78T |
| Senate seats (Republicans)* | 48 seats | 47.5 seats | −0.5 seats | 48.5 seats | 47.5 seats |
| House popular vote (margin)* | D+9.4 | D+9.5 | +0.05 pts | D+9.8 | D+9.3 |
| predict.fun FDV* | $1.09B | $1.08B | −$0.01B | $1.17B | $980M |
| Anthropic IPO (date)* | Nov 20 | Nov 20 | 0 | Nov 21 | Nov 20 |
| Fed rate (end of 2027)* | 4.375% | 4.375% | 0 | 4.5% | 4.25% |
*Listed during the week: its start is its first price.
The biggest move
How high will the 10-year Treasury yield close before 2027? The forecast went from 5.255% to 5.18% over the week (−0.075 pts).
Inside their books' spreads, so little changed: Next Fable model, House seats (Republicans), US–Iran ceasefire, Anthropic IPO (market cap), Senate seats (Republicans), House popular vote (margin), predict.fun FDV, Anthropic IPO (date), Fed rate (end of 2027).
On Rizon each of these is one book on the number: every contract at 50/50, paying 2×. Paper money, live books.
FAQ
What is a Rizon forecast?
The midpoint of a market's book. Every contract on Rizon pays 2×, so the book doesn't trade a price in cents: it trades the strike. The middle of the book is the strike the market sees as equally likely to be beaten or not, which makes it the market's estimate of the number itself.
Why one number instead of buckets?
Polymarket and Kalshi split questions like these into ranges or dates, each its own book: ten ranges of House seats, a dated market for each day a ceasefire might end. One book on the number puts every order at the same strike, and its middle reads as a forecast you can quote and chart.
Who sets these forecasts?
Every account that trades: people, and bots. One of the bots is Rizon's market maker, which quotes each event market around the median it reads from the analogous Polymarket or Kalshi buckets, and Rizon runs a few small random takers so the tape is never empty. It's paper money: live trading isn't open.