RizonTrading CPI and FOMC on short horizons: how big is Bitcoin's first minute?
Across 21 CPI releases (2025–26), Bitcoin's median first-minute move was 0.47%, about 10 times a normal weekday minute. After 14 FOMC statements, 0.27%.
Short answer: Big, and fast. Across all 21 US CPI releases from January 2025 to October 2026, Bitcoin's median move was 0.44% in the first 15 seconds and 0.47% in the first minute (about $380), roughly ten times the same minute on an ordinary weekday. After the 14 FOMC statements in the same period it was smaller: 0.16% in 15 seconds and 0.27% in a minute, about five times normal. Most of a CPI move was done within 15 seconds.
Two scheduled moments have reliably moved Bitcoin: the Consumer Price Index at 8:30 a.m. New York time, and the Federal Reserve's policy statement at 2:00 p.m. on the last day of each FOMC meeting. If you trade 15-second, 1-minute or 5-minute contracts, these are the minutes that decide whether a strike $50 away is far or close.
The first minute, in numbers
Moves are measured from the last trade before the release to 15 seconds, 1 minute and 5 minutes after it, using Binance's BTCUSDT 1-second klines. "Largest distance" is how far the price got from its pre-release level at any point in the first minute. The baseline is the same New York time on the ten weekdays before each release.
| Event | Releases | Median 15 s move (%) | Median 1 min move (%) | Median 5 min move (%) | Median largest distance in the first minute (%) | Baseline 1 min move (%) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | 21 | 0.44 | 0.47 | 0.43 | 0.56 | 0.045 |
| FOMC | 14 | 0.16 | 0.27 | 0.29 | 0.41 | 0.046 |
In dollars, the median CPI first minute was $378 and the median largest distance $539; for FOMC, $212 and $377. Measured release by release against its own baseline, the median CPI first minute was 10.4 times normal and the median 15 seconds 21.5 times; FOMC's were 5.2 and 11.3 times.
Every CPI release since January 2025
All at 8:30 a.m. ET. Dates are actual release dates, including the ones moved by the 2025 and 2026 federal funding lapses (see the notes below).
| Release date | Reference month | BTC before ($) | 15 s move (%) | 1 min move (%) | 5 min move (%) | Largest distance, first minute (%) | 1 min move ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-15 | December 2024 | 97,287 | +0.86 | +0.89 | +1.31 | 1.23 | +865 |
| 2025-02-12 | January 2025 | 96,505 | −1.38 | −1.31 | −1.67 | 1.50 | −1,261 |
| 2025-03-12 | February 2025 | 83,361 | +1.28 | +0.92 | +0.68 | 1.41 | +764 |
| 2025-04-10 | March 2025 | 82,008 | +0.19 | +0.45 | +0.04 | 0.56 | +372 |
| 2025-05-13 | April 2025 | 103,555 | +0.18 | +0.25 | +0.20 | 0.39 | +256 |
| 2025-06-11 | May 2025 | 109,276 | +0.35 | +0.47 | +0.45 | 0.49 | +508 |
| 2025-07-15 | June 2025 | 116,910 | +0.29 | +0.32 | +0.43 | 0.39 | +378 |
| 2025-08-12 | July 2025 | 118,491 | +0.28 | +0.51 | +0.38 | 0.55 | +605 |
| 2025-09-11 | August 2025 | 114,381 | −0.59 | −0.47 | −0.54 | 0.77 | −535 |
| 2025-10-24 | September 2025 | 111,007 | +0.65 | +0.63 | +0.49 | 0.99 | +704 |
| 2025-12-18 | November 2025 | 87,638 | +0.49 | +0.39 | +0.56 | 1.09 | +340 |
| 2026-01-13 | December 2025 | 92,140 | +0.35 | +0.15 | +0.16 | 0.47 | +136 |
| 2026-02-13 | January 2026 | 67,337 | +0.28 | +0.02 | +0.25 | 0.41 | +11 |
| 2026-03-11 | February 2026 | 69,427 | +0.46 | +0.04 | −0.22 | 0.51 | +28 |
| 2026-04-10 | March 2026 | 72,175 | −0.05 | +0.25 | +0.22 | 0.34 | +184 |
| 2026-05-12 | April 2026 | 80,820 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.06 | 0.21 | −136 |
| 2026-06-10 | May 2026 | 61,168 | +0.44 | +0.58 | +0.82 | 0.83 | +354 |
| 2026-07-14 | June 2026 | 62,958 | +0.48 | +0.93 | +0.82 | 0.99 | +588 |
| 2026-08-12 | July 2026 | 64,412 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.24 | 0.43 | −222 |
| 2026-09-11 | August 2026 | 77,095 | −0.64 | −0.85 | +0.07 | 1.36 | −658 |
| 2026-10-14 | September 2026 | 83,860 | −0.61 | −1.11 | −1.18 | 1.35 | −931 |
Every FOMC statement since January 2025
All at 2:00 p.m. ET on the meeting's last day; the Chair's press conference follows at 2:30 p.m., after these windows close.
| Release date | Meeting | BTC before ($) | 15 s move (%) | 1 min move (%) | 5 min move (%) | Largest distance, first minute (%) | 1 min move ($) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025-01-29 | Jan 28–29, 2025 | 102,854 | −0.18 | −0.28 | −0.66 | 0.37 | −285 |
| 2025-03-19 | Mar 18–19, 2025 | 84,231 | +0.78 | +0.37 | −0.07 | 0.87 | +315 |
| 2025-05-07 | May 6–7, 2025 | 96,308 | −0.11 | +0.10 | +0.32 | 0.29 | +96 |
| 2025-06-18 | Jun 17–18, 2025 | 104,332 | +0.10 | +0.24 | −0.26 | 0.36 | +248 |
| 2025-07-30 | Jul 29–30, 2025 | 117,802 | +0.03 | +0.09 | −0.12 | 0.20 | +111 |
| 2025-09-17 | Sep 16–17, 2025 | 115,504 | +0.32 | +0.50 | +0.59 | 0.72 | +582 |
| 2025-10-29 | Oct 28–29, 2025 | 111,883 | −0.13 | +0.02 | −0.23 | 0.36 | +24 |
| 2025-12-10 | Dec 9–10, 2025 | 92,503 | +0.32 | +0.45 | −0.53 | 0.80 | +417 |
| 2026-01-28 | Jan 27–28, 2026 | 89,546 | −0.04 | +0.09 | +0.00 | 0.15 | +77 |
| 2026-03-18 | Mar 17–18, 2026 | 71,595 | +0.15 | +0.28 | +0.47 | 0.48 | +198 |
| 2026-04-29 | Apr 28–29, 2026 | 76,184 | −0.09 | −0.10 | −0.35 | 0.13 | −80 |
| 2026-06-17 | Jun 16–17, 2026 | 66,104 | −0.33 | −0.97 | −1.29 | 1.04 | −645 |
| 2026-07-29 | Jul 28–29, 2026 | 64,270 | +0.40 | +0.35 | +0.24 | 0.59 | +226 |
| 2026-09-16 | Sep 15–16, 2026 | 75,768 | +0.21 | −0.25 | +0.10 | 0.45 | −191 |
The statement of the meeting ending today, 28 October 2026, isn't in the sample.
What the numbers say about trading the release
- The move comes before you've read the number. For CPI, the median 15-second move (0.44%) was nearly all of the median first minute (0.47%). By the time the headline is on a screen and read, most of the first reaction is in the price.
- A minute's range is bigger than its result. The median CPI first minute ended 0.47% from where it started, but travelled 0.56% at its furthest. A position can be well ahead at second 20 and behind at second 60.
- CPI's first move tended to persist more than FOMC's. The first-minute direction matched the 5-minute direction in 19 of 21 CPI releases and 8 of 14 FOMC statements. FOMC days have a second event, the press conference, half an hour later. These are small samples and describe the past, not the next release.
- Direction is not the point. Moves went both ways (15 CPI first minutes up, 6 down; 10 FOMC up, 4 down). What repeats is the size: the scale of a release minute is far outside an ordinary one.
How horizons and fixed windows meet a release
CPI comes out at 8:30:00, exactly on a 5- and 15-minute boundary. In a fixed-window up/down market, the 8:30 window's opening price is set at the moment of the release, so the whole first reaction lands inside one window, and anyone arriving 15 seconds late joins a window that has typically moved about 0.4% already.
A horizon contract has no shared opening price: it starts at your fill and runs its full length. On Rizon a 15-second contract bought at 8:30:05 covers 8:30:05 to about 8:30:20, at a strike next to the price when you trade. The market maker quotes wider while realised volatility runs high, so the strike spread tells you how fast the book thinks the price is moving.
Upcoming CPI and FOMC dates
From the official schedules (BLS CPI schedule, FOMC calendar). FOMC dates are tentative until confirmed at the meeting before.
| Event | Date | New York time | UTC |
|---|---|---|---|
| CPI (October 2026) | 2026-11-10 | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| FOMC statement | 2026-12-09 | 14:00 | 19:00 |
| CPI (November 2026) | 2026-12-10 | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| CPI (December 2026) | 2027-01-13 | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| FOMC statement | 2027-01-27 | 14:00 | 19:00 |
| CPI (January 2027) | 2027-02-11 | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| CPI (February 2027) | 2027-03-10 | 08:30 | 13:30 |
| FOMC statement | 2027-03-17 | 14:00 | 18:00 |
New York moves to daylight time on 14 March 2027, so from then on 8:30 a.m. is 12:30 UTC.
How we measured it
- Prices: Binance BTCUSDT 1-second klines from its public REST API (
data-api.binance.vision). The price before the release is the last trade at or before 8:30:00 (or 14:00:00) New York time. - Release times: CPI from each release's embargo line, matched to the BLS release archive; FOMC from the Federal Reserve's meeting calendar and statement press releases. Funding lapses moved several CPI releases: September 2025's came out on 24 October 2025 instead of 15 October; October 2025's was cancelled (BLS collected no October data); November 2025's moved to 18 December; January 2026's moved from 11 to 13 February. All were still at 8:30 a.m.
- Baseline: the same New York time on the ten weekdays before each release, skipping other CPI and FOMC days. Other scheduled data, such as weekly jobless claims at 8:30 on Thursdays, stays in, so the baseline is a typical busy weekday minute, not a quiet one.
- Rerun:
bun studio/research/macro-first-minute.tsin Rizon's repository; the release list with its sources isstudio/research/macro-releases-2025-2026.json.
FAQ
How much does Bitcoin move when CPI comes out?
Across 21 releases from January 2025 to October 2026, the median move was 0.44% in the first 15 seconds, 0.47% in the first minute and 0.43% after 5 minutes. The largest first minute was −1.31% (12 February 2025).
How much does Bitcoin move after an FOMC statement?
Across 14 statements, the median move was 0.16% in 15 seconds, 0.27% in a minute and 0.29% in 5 minutes. The largest first minute was −0.97% (17 June 2026).
What time is CPI released, in UTC?
8:30 a.m. New York time: 13:30 UTC while New York is on standard time (November to mid-March) and 12:30 UTC during daylight time. The next one is on 10 November 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Is the first minute after CPI predictable?
Its size has been: ten times a normal weekday minute, release after release. Its direction hasn't: the first minute went up 15 times and down 6 times in this sample, which says little about the next release.
Can I practise trading CPI without risking money?
Yes. Rizon is a paper exchange with live Bitcoin prices: you can open 15-second, 1-minute or 5-minute contracts in the seconds after a release and see how fast the strikes move, with practice money.