# Horizon contract vs perpetual futures: same book, different payoff

Both trade on a book whose price is a level of the underlying. A perp's PnL grows with the price and needs margin. A horizon contract's is fixed at your size.

Source: https://rizon.markets/learn/horizon-contract-vs-perpetual-futures (updated 2026-11-02)

> **Short answer:** Both trade on an order book whose price is a level of the underlying, and buying and selling work the same way. A perpetual future's PnL grows with every dollar the price moves, it never expires, and it runs on margin, funding and liquidation. A horizon contract's PnL is fixed at plus or minus your size, it expires, and the most you can lose is what you paid. A perp is for holding a position in an asset. A horizon contract is for a view on where a number will be at a set time, and it works on numbers no perp can list.

A [horizon contract](https://rizon.markets/horizon-contracts) borrows its book from futures. The difference is what happens to your position once you have one.

## The same book

On Nov 2, 2026, Rizon's [`BTC-1m`](https://rizon.markets/?m=BTC-1m&ref=learn-horizon-contract-vs-perpetual-futures) book quoted 78,328 bid and 78,336 ask. It reads like a futures book:

| | Perpetual future | Horizon contract |
|---|---|---|
| The book's price | Bitcoin's price, per BTC | The strike, in dollars |
| Buying takes the ask | Long from the ask | Higher at the ask |
| Selling takes the bid | Short from the bid | Lower at the bid |
| The spread | Dollars of price | Dollars of strike |
| Your entry | Your fill price | Your strike |
| PnL | (exit − entry) × quantity | Plus or minus your size |
| Expiry | None | A fixed time after your fill, or one date |
| Margin | Yes, and leverage to match | No: your size is paid in full |
| Funding | Paid or received every few hours | None |
| Liquidation | Yes | No |
| Exit | Any time | At expiry; hedge with the other side before that |
| Underlying | A price with an index | Any number with a named source |

## The payoff

Take a long from 78,336 and a Higher at the same level. The perp holds $100 of Bitcoin at 1× and the horizon contract has a size of $100:

| Bitcoin at the end ($) | Perp PnL at 1× ($) | Horizon contract PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| 78,136 | −0.26 | −100 |
| 78,286 | −0.06 | −100 |
| 78,335 | −0.00 | −100 |
| 78,336 | 0.00 | 0 |
| 78,337 | 0.00 | +100 |
| 78,386 | +0.06 | +100 |
| 78,536 | +0.26 | +100 |

A $1 move decides the whole contract, and a $200 move pays no more than a $1 one. This is the trade-off in one table. A perp pays you for how far the price goes. A horizon contract pays you for which side it finishes on.

## How much exposure is that, really?

Near the strike, a short-dated horizon contract moves like a large futures position. If the number finishes in a normal distribution around the strike with standard deviation σ, the value of a Higher contract of size s changes by 2s × 0.399 ÷ σ for each $1 the number moves. Bitcoin's one-sigma move over a minute was about $21 in Sep–Oct 2026, so at the moment you trade:

| Size ($) | Sensitivity ($ per $1 of Bitcoin) | Equivalent futures position (BTC) | Equivalent notional at $78,336 ($) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 10 | 0.38 | 0.38 | 29,800 |
| 100 | 3.80 | 3.80 | 297,700 |

That's why a 1-minute contract can feel like thousands of times leverage: for a moment, it behaves like it. The difference is at the edges. A real 3.8 BTC position keeps losing as the price falls and can be liquidated. The horizon contract's loss stops at $100, and its sensitivity drops away as the price moves from the strike. On a longer horizon, σ is larger and the same size carries less exposure.

## Many strikes make a straight line

Horizon contracts on a ladder of strikes add up to something close to a futures position, over a range. Hold Higher for $1 at each of 100 strikes, a dollar apart: each one pays +$1 above its strike and −$1 below.

| Bitcoin relative to the ladder | Contracts in profit | PnL ($) |
|---|---|---|
| Below every strike | 0 | −100 |
| A quarter of the way up | 25 | −50 |
| In the middle | 50 | 0 |
| Three quarters of the way up | 75 | +50 |
| Above every strike | 100 | +100 |

Inside the range, the PnL rises $2 for each $1 of Bitcoin, which is a 2 BTC futures position; outside it, the PnL is flat. So the digital payoff is the building block and the linear payoff is what you get by stacking it. In a real book, you'd cross a spread on each one, so this isn't a cheap way to get futures exposure. It shows how the two contracts relate.

## Which one fits

| Your view | Fits |
|---|---|
| "Bitcoin keeps going up this year" | A perp: you want PnL to grow with the move, and to hold it |
| "It finishes above this level in a minute" | A horizon contract: a defined risk on a defined time |
| "Republicans win more than 193.5 seats" | A horizon contract: there's no index to build a perp on, and a fixed result to settle on |
| "A hedge for a spot position over months" | A perp or a dated future: size is linear, and you can exit any time |
| "I never want a liquidation" | A horizon contract, or an unlevered position |

## FAQ

### Is a horizon contract a futures contract?

No. It trades on a book like a futures book, but its payoff is binary and it's fully paid when you trade. A futures contract has a linear payoff and needs margin.

### Does a horizon contract have funding?

No. A perp pays funding because it has no expiry and needs a way to stay near the index. A horizon contract expires and settles on the number, so there's nothing to keep it anchored to.

### Can a horizon contract be liquidated?

No. Your size is paid in full up front, so there's no margin to run out of. The worst case is losing your size at expiry.

### Can you hedge a perp with a horizon contract?

Partly. A Lower contract pays a fixed amount if the price finishes under the strike, so it offsets a long perp's loss at one point, not across every level. A ladder of strikes covers a range, as above, at the cost of a spread on each.

### Are there perpetual prediction markets?

Yes, as a separate product. Kalshi's [glossary](https://kalshi.com/pro/help/glossary) lists perpetuals as leveraged derivatives contracts with no fixed expiration, apart from its prediction-market contracts. A horizon contract keeps the prediction market's expiry and defined risk, and takes only the futures-style book.